Our models beat prediction markets.
We grade our models each race against live prediction markets: Polymarket and Kalshi. In 2026, our win probabilities scored closer to the result than theirs, before lights-out and live during race events.
Every prediction was made with the outcome unknown, then graded against what happened and how we stack up against other competitors and prediction markets.
We compute championship probabilities continuously as the season unfolds.
Each line is the model's live championship probability after every round of 2025. If we just followed the points leader, one line would sit on top all year. Instead the lead changes hands — Piastri our favorite from late August into October — before Norris's late surge to the title.
Norris took the title, but it never seems set in stone. Our model had him as low as 24% in early September, with Piastri at 76%. Calling a season isn't backing the leader; it's being right about when the lead is real.
Our goal is to beat the market everywhere, but we aren't there yet.
| Market | Season | Us vs the market | Significance | Calibration (ours vs market) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-race winner | 2026 | Sharper in 6 of 9 races | p = 0.005 | 0.020 vs 0.022 | Lead |
| Live winner, mid + late | 2026 | 44% better calibrated | p ≤ 0.01 | 0.014 vs 0.025 | Lead |
| Drivers' champion | 2025 | Right 71% vs 24% | p < 0.01 | 0.015 vs 0.044 | Lead |
| Live winner, opening laps | 2026 | Level | n.s. | on par | Parity |
| Podium (top 3) | 2026 | Level | n.s. | market tighter | Parity |
| Constructors' champion | 2024 | Level | n.s. | 0.088 vs 0.109 | Parity |
“Parity” means we do not beat the market yet. We continuously invest in our ML algorithms to eventually beat the market on every category.
The models feeding those lines
See the predictions live.
What our models said, live, checked against what happened. Race by race.
50+ real-time feeds,
pushed the moment they fire.
50+ real-time feeds across timing, race control, strategy, and more — pushed directly to your endpoint the moment they happen. The Developer tier unlocks every live data feed; Custom adds the ML feed suite on top. The Free tier lets you build and test on historical and simulated sessions.
Lap times, sector splits, gaps, and mini-sector detail — every lap.
Flags, race control messages, and team communications.
Session status, clock, lap count, track status, and the driver list.
Tire stints and history, pit stops, and pit-lane timing.
Track conditions, rainfall events, forecasts, and weather intelligence.
Synthesized event streams — overtakes, milestones, qualifying events.
Feed id values (e.g. timing.data, race-control.messages) are in the Feed Catalog.
Research Grade Analytics
in real time.
Position distributions, pit and safety-car probabilities, tyre health metrics — inside the timing data you already consume.
How each model works, and how it's calibrated: the models reference →
Who builds on RaceHooks
Each card shows what ships on Developer at $99/mo, and what Custom adds on top.
Fantasy & DFS Projections
Every scoring category, live from lights out.
Trading & Quant Research
Price the race before the market reprices.
Race Strategy
Every stint, every stop, structured while it happens.
Media & Broadcast
Surface the story as it happens.
Dashboards & Fan Apps
Your dashboard, wired to the live session.
Sim Racing & Esports
Real F1 data for the sim on your desk.
Research & Teaching
Seven decades of racing, one consistent schema.
Developer Tools
Build without waiting for race day.
First webhook in five minutes.
Register an endpoint. Subscribe to a feed. Your first delivery arrives in under 5 minutes. Building fantasy? The Fantasy scoring API and open-source scorer turn that feed into a live leaderboard.
Replay this season's sessions at up to 10× — build before race day.
Every payload signed. One line to verify.
Headers, status, latency, retries — every attempt, exportable.
Simple pricing model.
Replay and API available free. Go paid to get data live.
Build and test your integration before going live.
Every live feed, metered by delivery — build and ship commercial products.
Production-scale delivery, an SLA, the full 14-model analytics stack, dedicated infrastructure — whatever your product needs.
Unlimited live delivery, contractual SLA, the full 14-model ML analytics stack (win/podium probability, tyre health, pit predictions, 22 derived feeds), dedicated infrastructure, custom limits and throughput, a named CSM — priced around what you actually use, not a fixed tier. Talk to sales@racehooks.io.
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F1 live. IndyCar data live. More coming.
One integration across every series. Your code keeps working as sports launch.
Query results (1996–2026), standings, schedule, and roster today. Real-time IndyCar streaming delivery is in development. Get notified when it ships.